In my last post a couple of weeks ago I looked briefly at the October month effect of the RWC in comparison to the previous October months. By way of a recap, where the average net (total) passenger arrivals in the October month between 2000 and 2010 was a shade under 54,000, in 2011 the corresponding figure was -4,337. In the September month (when the pool phase of the tournament was held across the country), the average net passenger arrivals between 2000 and 2011 was approximately 2,917. The corresponding figure in September 2011 was 51,174. In comparison with the average figures, it would appear that while the RWC is likely to have boosted September month net arrivals by some 48,000 visitors, the effect in October was actually a worsening of some 58,000 visitors. The combined effect of the RWC in the two months in question suggests a net outflow of some 10,000 visitors when compared to the averages for those months.
It would appear that the 133,200 visitors that arrived in the country for the RWC were offset by rather substantial crowding out. The effect of their spending on the economy will be dependent on whether the amount spent by the RWC visitors outweighed the loss of spending from those who left. Either way, it doesn't seem very likely that it will be $400 million, let alone $700 million. More will unfold in the coming months, I am sure.